by Dr. Manish Pandit
This is August 2019: Article 370 has now been abrogated and the Kashmir has been bifurcated into two Union Territories. Many people were taken by surprise. Could this entire thing have been predicted?
I wrote a few points on the Kashmir issue in 2016 and 2018.
Perception of the USA vis a vis Kashmir:
The entire shift in the tide of that American- Pakistani relationship goes back to 2011.
The Americans got pukka intelligence that OBL was hiding in Abottabad (this place is quite close to Balakot btw where the Indians executed one of their air strikes post Pulwama earlier this year)…
That public enemy number 1 of the USA was hiding within 500 yards of the military compound of the Pakistani Army, an event which could not have happened without the knowledge of the top Army brass in Pakistan and the upper echelons of their establishment, is what really shook the Americans and forced them to rethink their entire policy on Kashmir. It is difficult for us to imagine the anger of the Americans because Indians did not face a 9/11.
Now, let’s just think about this.
Could any Government be so brazen as to take 1 billion dollars in aid from the USA AND hide their number one terrorist in plain sight of their army HQ in Abbotabad? There are only a few options that the Americans needed to consider here:
The Americans must have evaluated the information they received and they must have thought that either
A. The Americans were fools to give them 1 billion dollars aid
B. The Americans were incompetent and could never have discovered the whereabouts of OBL…
I mean… the sheer stupidity of this thought is worth imagining:
The Americans are nobody’s fools. These guys were watching the Pakistanis like hawks.. imagine the temperature of the top hawks in Washington rise…Can you imagine the colour of their faces and their anger when their top National security guys must have discovered that OBL was hiding in plain sight of the Army HQ in Abottabad?
That’s when the Americans decided unilaterally to take out OBL… THAT singular event changed everything…. AND eroded the trust which the Americans had hitherto placed in the Pakistani establishment ie. the Army.
Trust is a huge thing for the Americans and for most people who live in the West including Indians but I digress…. breaking that trust in this fashion ensured that the Americans would never ever trust Pakistan again…
This 2011 event had very significant geo political consequences for India too:
Kashmir will never be on an international agenda of any note again.. nobody wants this anymore. And after Modi’s excellent international diplomacy… that’s that…. cheekho chillao… world has changed.
Opposition leaders in India should watch all this with great interest … Imran Khan unfortunately is effectively a nobody because in Pakistan …. Prime Ministers come and go, the army is still in charge of Pakistan. Every country has an army, in Pakistan, the army has a country.
Now let’s look further at what the UN thinks about the Kashmir issue.
Extraordinary Signal from the UN in Aug 2016
What the UN thinks about Kashmir can be known from what exactly they said a few years ago when “a never event” occurred. Those of you who followed me on FB know what that event was….
On Aug 2, 2016, an event of terrific significance occurred in the UN. Those who followed this account know that I had offered a bottle of Glenfiddich to anyone who could guess. Alas nobody could guess it.
But here it is on my FB account from September 2018:
Before I start, let me quote one thing categorically:
The UN figuratively speaking cannot even go to the toilet without asking the US State department.
The bottle of Glenfiddich I offered at the time is still lying unclaimed. Nobody on Twitter or FB could guess the answer…
There was a really superb signal which is hidden amongst all the rumours and other rubbish which floats about in the news and on the internet. This signal on Aug 2, 2016 is why all the various actors in that debate became very very worried.
A “Never” before event at the UN.
Ever heard of a highest ranking UN official contradicting another top official 180 deg ?
Now you know why wannabe lawyer and Bahut Pareshan lawyer n his new sidekick in Delhi were so worried.
And what does this sudden U turn on the behalf of the UN’s top guys imply?
I quote the article where d most senior person from the UN said this:
“On Tuesday, Dujarric was asked “Why the UN considered it necessary to issue a clarification?”
He said cryptically” It needed to be said”
Ever heard of a highest ranking UN official going 180 deg?
Check out the article and thank me later for this simple bit of information… everybody who saw this signal knew that US Policy in Kashmir had changed. This was an earthquake. Check out this small article hidden away amongst a lot of junk on the internet and marvel at it.
Shanti rakhiye and chill. Washington sey lekar Moscow tak, koi interfere nahi karney wala in Kashmir… wake up n smell the coffee!